2006

Abstract:

The early disease transmission model of Kermack and McKendrick established two main results that are still at the core of most disease transmission models today:  the basic reproduction number, Ro as a threshold for disease spread in a population; and the final size of an epidemic. As models become more complex, the relationship between disease spread, final size and Ro are not as clear; yet Ro remains the main object of study when comparing control measures. In this talk I review the final size relation for a simple epidemic model and discuss its form in more complex models for treatment and control of influenza and HIV.